Forecasts Address Availability of Vaccines, Return to Normalcy for U.S. Schools, Sporting Events, Air Travel, and Theme Parks
NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Today, Good Judgment Inc, a consultancy using the world’s most accurate judgmental forecasting methodology to help clients make better decisions, announced new findings from its COVID Recovery Dashboard, which forecasts the timing of notable socioeconomic milestones as the world reopens from COVID-19. The forecasts address various topics – including the development of a COVID-19 vaccine, resumption of in-person schooling and the return of normal levels of air travel – that have significant direct and indirect implications for the public and private sectors, as well as the general population.
Good Judgment’s methodology assigns a numeric probability to the occurrence of an event, as well as qualitative context, enabling improved risk management and informed, evidence-based decisions. Good Judgment’s unique process leverages the wisdom of the crowd by enlisting its specially trained Superforecaster® network to explore answers to these questions and provide early warning indicators on these critical issues. Forecasts receive updates as new information is available, ensuring users have the latest, most actionable insights possible. Good Judgment’s approach stems from decades of research and has been tested against – and consistently outperformed – forecasters across a variety of topic domains, including national intelligence, foreign affairs, finance and epidemiology.
“The COVID-19 pandemic has imposed unprecedented levels of uncertainty on business and policy leaders as they weigh critical – in some cases, life and death – decisions for their organizations, stakeholders and public at large,” said Warren Hatch, Chief Executive Officer of Good Judgment. “By providing a better understanding of critical issues and events, we help our clients remove uncertainty sooner, so the right decision can be brought into clearer focus. Our Superforecasters will continue to look at pressing issues related to COVID-19 and update their forecasts in real-time. We hope these insights offer some clarity as we all chart a path forward through this pandemic together.”
Good Judgment’s services are used across a multitude of industries, including, but not limited to financial services, energy, government, healthcare, and NGOs. Good Judgment crafted its current COVID-19 pandemic recovery questions with these users in mind. The current questions are:
- When will a COVID-19 vaccine be widely available?
- When will New York City public schools resume in-person instruction?
- When will UCLA resume in-person instruction?
- What will be Los Angeles International Airport’s (LAX) Passenger Traffic Total percent change for January 2021 as compared to January 2020?
- When will either the National Football League (NFL) or Major League Baseball (MLB) next hold a regular season game?
- When will Walt Disney World’s Magic Kingdom reopen to the general public?
Good Judgment’s Superforecaster® network consists of a unique subset of people with sophisticated skills in creative, openminded, and analytical thinking. They generate forecasts from readily available, public data, and can also enhance insights from existing domain level experts to provide early warning. Superforecasters come from six continents, bringing in diverse perspectives that factor language and cultural nuance into their forecasts. Unlike most other forecasters, Good Judgment keeps score of the Superforecasters and holds itself accountable for the veracity of its insights.
To work with Good Judgment, clients can subscribe to existing questions posed to the Good Judgment Superforecaster network or develop custom, proprietary forecasts that answer their unique questions. Good Judgment offers workshops to train an organizations’ current forecasters, and it can also help organizations build a true, in-house Superforecasting capability. Through its public forecasting platform, Good Judgment Open, anyone can try their hand at Superforecasting, including competitions that are used to identify new members for the network.
ABOUT GOOD JUDGMENT INC
Good Judgment Inc is a consultancy using the world’s most accurate judgmental forecasting methodology to help clients make better decisions by removing uncertainty and bringing the right decision into clear focus sooner. Good Judgment’s unique process leverages the wisdom of the crowd by enlisting its specially trained Superforecaster® network to explore critical questions and provide early warning indicators for related issues and events. The firm’s services are used across a multitude of industries, including, but not limited to financial services, energy, government, healthcare, and NGOs. To learn more about Good Judgment and its range of services, please visit www.goodjudgment.com.